The global economy continues to recover, along with trade, employment, and incomes. But the revival is unbalanced, with countries, businesses, and people facing very different economic realities. Recent improvements also conceal structural changes, which mean that some sectors, jobs, technologies and behaviours will not return to their pre-pandemic trends. The situation is extraordinary yet our economic outlook is cautiously optimistic. It focuses on the policies needed to balance such uncertain circumstances with the unusual appearance of rising inflation pressures at an early stage of the recovery. Health, supply constraints, inflation and potential policy missteps are all key concerns.

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